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Ted Pillows
Call hit rate
50%
8 scored
Auto-scored against LBank daily OHLCV · narrative calls tracked manually
True
4
Partial
1
False
3
Not counted in any hit rate: 1 didn't trigger · 0 still open · 0 narrative, with no price target to score
1st · Crypto Outlook
Published Nov 19, 2025 · 20 calls
4 true
1 partial
2 false
1 didn't trigger
0 pending
0 narrative
Hit rate
57%
1st · Crypto Outlook
Published Nov 19, 2025 · 20 calls
4 true
1 partial
2 false
1 didn't trigger
0 pending
0 narrative
Hit rate
57%
| Claim | Asset | Target | Observed | Window | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BTC short-term trading range: **$85–95K**
Short-term (next weeks)
|
BTC | - | - | - | True |
|
BTC key support: **$80–85K** (likely retest)
Short-term
|
BTC | - | - | - | True |
|
**Stress Build phase (Now → Mid-Dec 2025):** SPX 5,300–5,500; BTC $80–95K; Gold ~$2,700
Now → Mid-Dec 2025
|
SPX, BTC, Gold | - | - | - | True |
|
Bitcoin's $90K level likely retests $80–85K short-term
Short-term
|
BTC | - | - | - | True |
|
Recommendation: place limit bids between $75K–$85K for BTC
Short-term
|
BTC | - | - | - | Partial |
|
Medium-term BTC surge to **$150–300K**
Medium-term
|
BTC | - | - | - | False |
|
**Liquidity Thaw (Q1 → Q2 2026):** BTC $150K+; mega-tech re-rating; EM/Comms outperform
Q1–Q2 2026
|
BTC, mega-tech, EM, Communications | - | - | - | False |
|
BTC worst-case scenario: a wick to **$75–78K**
Short-term
|
BTC | - | - | - | Didn't trigger |
A new BTC all-time high before year-end 2025 is **possible but unlikely** without a signifA new BTC all-time high before year-end 2025 is **possible but unlikely** without a significant liquidity boostBy end of 2025
|
BTC | - | - | - | Narrative |
|
Momentum could return in **Q1 or Q2 of 2026**
Q1–Q2 2026
|
Crypto broadly | - | - | - | Narrative |
|
Long-term, new ATHs are likely once liquidity returns
Long-term / cycle
|
Crypto | - | - | - | Narrative |
|
If bank reserves fall below ~$2.7T, a Fed policy pivot may be **forced sooner**
Near-term
|
Macro / USD liquidity | - | - | - | Narrative |
|
Nvidia Q3 FY2026 consensus: 56% YoY revenue growth to $54.92B
Reported after Nov 19, 2025 close
|
NVDA | - | - | - | Narrative |
|
A decisive NVDA beat (>$55B) with upward guidance could stabilize mega-caps
Near-term
|
NVDA / Mega-caps | - | - | - | Narrative |
Absent NVDA beat + soft jobs, **VIX holds 20–25**, defensive rotation continues, mega-capAbsent NVDA beat + soft jobs, **VIX holds 20–25**, defensive rotation continues, mega-cap upside cappedNear-term
|
VIX / Mega-caps | - | - | - | Narrative |
|
**>60% probability of QE-lite by Q1 2026**
By Q1 2026
|
Macro / liquidity | - | - | - | Narrative |
|
Proposed $2,000 "tariff dividend" checks would deliver ~$500B stimulus
Near-term
|
Macro / fiscal | - | - | - | Narrative |
|
CTAs net short Nasdaq (-15%) creates upside skew if liquidity eases
Near-term
|
Nasdaq | - | - | - | Narrative |
|
**Pivot Window (Mid-Dec 2025 → Year-End):** Nasdaq +5–8%; BTC → $110K; 10Y < 4.2%
Mid-Dec 2025 → Dec 31, 2025
|
Nasdaq, BTC, 10Y Treasury | - | - | - | Narrative |
Liquidity cycle is reaching a turning point; near-term volatility should be used to buildLiquidity cycle is reaching a turning point; near-term volatility should be used to build positions ahead of likely policy pivot into early 2026Early 2026
|
Crypto / multi-asset | - | - | - | Narrative |
2nd · The Liquidity Trap
Published Apr 14, 2026 · 16 calls
0 true
0 partial
1 false
0 pending
0 narrative
Hit rate
0%
2nd · The Liquidity Trap
Published Apr 14, 2026 · 16 calls
0 true
0 partial
1 false
0 pending
0 narrative
Hit rate
0%
| Claim | Asset | Target | Observed | Window | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
$60k acts as the "early damage / trend break" level for BTC
Near-term path
|
BTC | - | - | - | False |
BTC will move toward the $70k range (already partially "called" — Ted claims this predictiBTC will move toward the $70k range (already partially "called" — Ted claims this prediction was made in his prior crypto outlook report and "turned out to be exactly right")Already realized at time of writing (retrospective claim)
|
BTC | - | - | - | Narrative |
|
BTC will reach the $70–80K range
2026 ("very likely to play out in 2026")
|
BTC | - | - | - | Narrative |
$50k is the "key liquidity zone" with the highest probability of reaction (personal range$50k is the "key liquidity zone" with the highest probability of reaction (personal range $47k–$52k)Medium-term
|
BTC | - | - | - | Narrative |
|
$40k marks the start of the "panic phase"
Conditional on continued decline
|
BTC | - | - | - | Narrative |
|
$30k is the "full deleveraging zone"
Conditional / tail
|
BTC | - | - | - | Narrative |
|
$10k–$20k represents a capitulation wick / systemic-event tail
Tail-risk scenario
|
BTC | - | - | - | Narrative |
ETH will retrace along a multi-year trendline analogue to its 2021–2022 ~65% drawdown, witETH will retrace along a multi-year trendline analogue to its 2021–2022 ~65% drawdown, with a projected ~62% drop visible in Ted's chartPlays out into 2026 (per chart x-axis)
|
ETH | - | - | - | Narrative |
Market is in a late Phase 2 → early Phase 3 transition (not yet a fully developed capitulaMarket is in a late Phase 2 → early Phase 3 transition (not yet a fully developed capitulation)Current / unfolding
|
BTC / global risk | - | - | - | Narrative |
A final price capitulation event (sharp flush) will occur in Phase 3 to exhaust weak handsA final price capitulation event (sharp flush) will occur in Phase 3 to exhaust weak hands and form the next cycle baseBefore next expansion cycle
|
BTC, broader crypto | - | - | - | Narrative |
|
When macro liquidity eventually improves, BTC will be the first crypto to respond
Cycle turn
|
BTC vs alts | - | - | - | Narrative |
Recovery, when it begins, will feature *narrow leadership* (capital concentrates rather thRecovery, when it begins, will feature *narrow leadership* (capital concentrates rather than rotates broadly) — i.e., alts will NOT broadly rally with BTC initiallyRecovery phase
|
BTC vs alts | - | - | - | Narrative |
|
Altcoins will continue to bleed without needing negative news — only the absence of buyers
Ongoing through liquidity trap
|
Altcoins (broad) | - | - | - | Narrative |
|
Rallies in the current regime will be sharp but reverse quickly without real demand
Duration of liquidity trap
|
BTC, broad crypto | - | - | - | Narrative |
Global equities will turn bearish (Phase 2 of his model) — implicitly, equity drawdown stiGlobal equities will turn bearish (Phase 2 of his model) — implicitly, equity drawdown still ahead or in progressPhase 2 timing
|
Global equities (SPX/NDX implied) | - | - | - | Narrative |
Bitcoin will lead global macro into the bear market by months (BTC tops/bottoms before equBitcoin will lead global macro into the bear market by months (BTC tops/bottoms before equities)Ongoing
|
BTC vs equities | - | - | - | Narrative |
3rd · Outlook
Published ~Jun 2026 · 20 calls
0 true
0 partial
0 false
0 pending
0 narrative
3rd · Outlook
Published ~Jun 2026 · 20 calls
0 true
0 partial
0 false
0 pending
0 narrative
| Claim | Asset | Target | Observed | Window | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] Base case: Bitcoin bottoms sometime in Q4 2026
2026-10-01 to 2026-12-31
|
BTC | - | - | - | Narrative |
|
[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] Both bottom scenarios resolve in the H2 2026 window
2026-07-01 to 2026-12-31
|
BTC | - | - | - | Narrative |
|
[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] Stock market correction in H2 2026 drags BTC to its real low
2026-07-01 to 2026-12-31
|
SPX/NDX + BTC | - | - | - | Narrative |
[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] Bottom prints when Fed stops tightening and equities capitulate (c[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] Bottom prints when Fed stops tightening and equities capitulate (catalyst, not calendar)open-ended, expected H2 2026
|
BTC / macro | - | - | - | Narrative |
|
[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] Two-stage scenario: BTC forms a meaningful low in June 2026
2026-06-01 to 2026-06-30
|
BTC | - | - | - | Narrative |
[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] Two-stage scenario: convincing BTC rally through July 2026 that is[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] Two-stage scenario: convincing BTC rally through July 2026 that is NOT the real bottom2026-07-01 to 2026-07-31
|
BTC | - | - | - | Narrative |
[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] Two-stage scenario: final flush lands ~October 2026 as the real bo[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] Two-stage scenario: final flush lands ~October 2026 as the real bottom2026-10-01 to 2026-10-31
|
BTC | - | - | - | Narrative |
[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] Post-bottom: +310-420% over the 12 months following the cycle bott[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] Post-bottom: +310-420% over the 12 months following the cycle bottom (hedged base rate)12 months post-bottom
|
BTC | - | - | - | Narrative |
[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] TradFi profits temporarily rotate out and BTC begins next 4-year c[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] TradFi profits temporarily rotate out and BTC begins next 4-year cycle in a few months (~Q4 2026)~2026-Q4
|
BTC / TradFi flows | - | - | - | Narrative |
[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] TradFi->BTC rotation thesis currently wrong-way; money flowing to[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] TradFi->BTC rotation thesis currently wrong-way; money flowing to AI/semis insteadcurrent / ongoing
|
BTC vs AI/semis | - | - | - | Narrative |
[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] $48K-$55K (centered $50K) is the main accumulation zone - highest-[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] $48K-$55K (centered $50K) is the main accumulation zone - highest-probability liquidity areaH2 2026
|
BTC | - | - | - | Narrative |
|
[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] $40K = panic phase
conditional, H2 2026
|
BTC | - | - | - | Narrative |
|
[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] $30K = full deleveraging
conditional / deeper
|
BTC | - | - | - | Narrative |
|
[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] $10-20K = capitulation wick / systemic event
tail risk
|
BTC | - | - | - | Narrative |
[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] Market in late Phase 2 -> early Phase 3; a more complete flush sti[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] Market in late Phase 2 -> early Phase 3; a more complete flush still aheadH2 2026
|
BTC / global risk | - | - | - | Narrative |
[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] When global liquidity improves, Bitcoin responds first (before alt[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] When global liquidity improves, Bitcoin responds first (before alts)cycle turn
|
BTC vs alts | - | - | - | Narrative |
[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] Time to start DCAing BTC is after the June low - 'good enough' on[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] Time to start DCAing BTC is after the June low - 'good enough' on multi-month horizonfrom June 2026 low
|
BTC | - | - | - | Narrative |
[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] RETRO CLAIM: 'previous reports outlined a bearish scenario... play[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] RETRO CLAIM: 'previous reports outlined a bearish scenario... played out very close to that roadmap' (sub-$60K)retrospective
|
BTC | - | - | - | Narrative |
[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] RETRO CLAIM: publicly turned bearish months ago, flagged ETH $4,50[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] RETRO CLAIM: publicly turned bearish months ago, flagged ETH $4,500-4,900 profit-take zoneretrospective
|
ETH | - | - | - | Narrative |
[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] RETRO CLAIM: first chunk deployed at 'the predicted $60K level' ma[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] RETRO CLAIM: first chunk deployed at 'the predicted $60K level' marking early trend breakexecuted at writing
|
BTC | - | - | - | Narrative |