Live demo — sample data. A real crypto & copy-trade tracker for trading communities. Ted's report scorecard is real analysis.
Ted Pillows Predictions
Auto-scored against LBank daily OHLCV · narrative calls tracked manually
True
4
Partial
0
False
4
Didn't trigger
1
Pending
3
Narrative
44
1st · Crypto Outlook
Published Nov 19, 2025 · 20 calls
Hit rate
57%
4 true
0 partial
3 false
1 didn't trigger
0 pending
12 narrative
| Claim | Asset | Target | Observed (window) | Window | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BTC short-term trading range: **$85–95K**
Short-term (next weeks)
|
BTC | $85,000 – $95,000 | $80,641 – $94,593 | 2025-11-19 → 2025-12-17 | True |
|
BTC key support: **$80–85K** (likely retest)
Short-term
|
BTC | $80,000 – $85,000 | $80,641 – $94,593 | 2025-11-19 → 2025-12-17 | True |
|
**Stress Build phase (Now → Mid-Dec 2025):** SPX 5,300–5,500; BTC $80–95K; Gold ~$2,700
Now → Mid-Dec 2025
|
SPX, BTC, Gold | $80,000 – $95,000 | $80,641 – $94,593 | 2025-11-19 → 2025-12-15 | True |
|
Bitcoin's $90K level likely retests $80–85K short-term
Short-term
|
BTC | $80,000 – $85,000 | $80,641 – $94,593 | 2025-11-19 → 2025-12-17 | True |
|
Medium-term BTC surge to **$150–300K**
Medium-term
|
BTC | $150,000 – $300,000 | $60,092 – $97,929 | 2025-11-19 → 2026-05-19 | False |
|
**Liquidity Thaw (Q1 → Q2 2026):** BTC $150K+; mega-tech re-rating; EM/Comms outperform
Q1–Q2 2026
|
BTC, mega-tech, EM, Communications | ≥ $150,000 | $58,134 – $97,929 | 2026-01-01 → 2026-06-30 | False |
|
Recommendation: place limit bids between $75K–$85K for BTC
Short-term
|
BTC | $75 | $80,641 – $94,593 | 2025-11-19 → 2025-12-17 | False |
|
BTC worst-case scenario: a wick to **$75–78K**
Short-term
conditional scenario — did not trigger
|
BTC | $75,000 – $78,000 | $80,641 – $94,593 | 2025-11-19 → 2025-12-17 | Didn't trigger |
|
A new BTC all-time high before year-end 2025 is **possible but unlikely** without a signif…
By end of 2025
non-price or unparseable target
|
BTC | — | — | — | Narrative |
|
Momentum could return in **Q1 or Q2 of 2026**
Q1–Q2 2026
non-price or unparseable target
|
Crypto broadly | — | — | — | Narrative |
|
Long-term, new ATHs are likely once liquidity returns
Long-term / cycle
non-price or unparseable target
|
Crypto | — | — | — | Narrative |
|
If bank reserves fall below ~$2.7T, a Fed policy pivot may be **forced sooner**
Near-term
asset not auto-evaluable
|
Macro / USD liquidity | $3 | — | 2025-11-19 → 2025-12-17 | Narrative |
|
Nvidia Q3 FY2026 consensus: 56% YoY revenue growth to $54.92B
Reported after Nov 19, 2025 close
non-price or unparseable target
|
NVDA | — | — | — | Narrative |
|
A decisive NVDA beat (>$55B) with upward guidance could stabilize mega-caps
Near-term
asset not auto-evaluable
|
NVDA / Mega-caps | $55 | — | 2025-11-19 → 2025-12-17 | Narrative |
|
Absent NVDA beat + soft jobs, **VIX holds 20–25**, defensive rotation continues, mega-cap …
Near-term
non-price or unparseable target
|
VIX / Mega-caps | — | — | — | Narrative |
|
**>60% probability of QE-lite by Q1 2026**
By Q1 2026
non-price or unparseable target
|
Macro / liquidity | — | — | — | Narrative |
|
Proposed $2,000 "tariff dividend" checks would deliver ~$500B stimulus
Near-term
asset not auto-evaluable
|
Macro / fiscal | $2 | — | 2025-11-19 → 2025-12-17 | Narrative |
|
CTAs net short Nasdaq (-15%) creates upside skew if liquidity eases
Near-term
non-price or unparseable target
|
Nasdaq | — | — | — | Narrative |
|
**Pivot Window (Mid-Dec 2025 → Year-End):** Nasdaq +5–8%; BTC → $110K; 10Y < 4.2%
Mid-Dec 2025 → Dec 31, 2025
unparseable horizon
|
Nasdaq, BTC, 10Y Treasury | $140,000 | — | — | Narrative |
|
Liquidity cycle is reaching a turning point; near-term volatility should be used to build …
Early 2026
non-price or unparseable target
|
Crypto / multi-asset | — | — | — | Narrative |
2nd · The Liquidity Trap
Published Apr 23, 2026 · 16 calls
Hit rate
0%
0 true
0 partial
1 false
1 pending
14 narrative
| Claim | Asset | Target | Observed (window) | Window | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
$60k acts as the "early damage / trend break" level for BTC
Near-term path
|
BTC | $60,000 | $74,943 – $82,837 | 2026-04-23 → 2026-05-21 | False |
|
$50k is the "key liquidity zone" with the highest probability of reaction (personal range …
Medium-term
|
BTC | $50,000 | $57,810 – $82,837 | 2026-04-23 → 2026-10-23 | Pending |
|
BTC will move toward the $70k range (already partially "called" — Ted claims this predicti…
Already realized at time of writing (retrospective claim)
unparseable horizon
|
BTC | $70,000 | — | — | Narrative |
|
BTC will reach the $70–80K range
2026 ("very likely to play out in 2026")
unparseable horizon
|
BTC | $70,000 – $80,000 | — | — | Narrative |
|
$40k marks the start of the "panic phase"
Conditional on continued decline
unparseable horizon
|
BTC | $40,000 | — | — | Narrative |
|
$30k is the "full deleveraging zone"
Conditional / tail
unparseable horizon
|
BTC | $30,000 | — | — | Narrative |
|
$10k–$20k represents a capitulation wick / systemic-event tail
Tail-risk scenario
unparseable horizon
|
BTC | $10 | — | — | Narrative |
|
ETH will retrace along a multi-year trendline analogue to its 2021–2022 ~65% drawdown, wit…
Plays out into 2026 (per chart x-axis)
non-price or unparseable target
|
ETH | — | — | — | Narrative |
|
Market is in a late Phase 2 → early Phase 3 transition (not yet a fully developed capitula…
Current / unfolding
non-price or unparseable target
|
BTC / global risk | — | — | — | Narrative |
|
A final price capitulation event (sharp flush) will occur in Phase 3 to exhaust weak hands…
Before next expansion cycle
non-price or unparseable target
|
BTC, broader crypto | — | — | — | Narrative |
|
When macro liquidity eventually improves, BTC will be the first crypto to respond
Cycle turn
non-price or unparseable target
|
BTC vs alts | — | — | — | Narrative |
|
Recovery, when it begins, will feature *narrow leadership* (capital concentrates rather th…
Recovery phase
non-price or unparseable target
|
BTC vs alts | — | — | — | Narrative |
|
Altcoins will continue to bleed without needing negative news — only the absence of buyers
Ongoing through liquidity trap
non-price or unparseable target
|
Altcoins (broad) | — | — | — | Narrative |
|
Rallies in the current regime will be sharp but reverse quickly without real demand
Duration of liquidity trap
non-price or unparseable target
|
BTC, broad crypto | — | — | — | Narrative |
|
Global equities will turn bearish (Phase 2 of his model) — implicitly, equity drawdown sti…
Phase 2 timing
non-price or unparseable target
|
Global equities (SPX/NDX implied) | — | — | — | Narrative |
|
Bitcoin will lead global macro into the bear market by months (BTC tops/bottoms before equ…
Ongoing
non-price or unparseable target
|
BTC vs equities | — | — | — | Narrative |
3rd · Outlook
Published ~Jun 2026 · 20 calls
0 true
0 partial
0 false
2 pending
18 narrative
| Claim | Asset | Target | Observed (window) | Window | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] $48K-$55K (centered $50K) is the main accumulation zone - highest-…
H2 2026
|
BTC | $48,000 – $55,000 | $59,589 – $62,400 | 2026-07-01 → 2026-12-31 | Pending |
|
[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] $40K = panic phase
conditional, H2 2026
|
BTC | $40,000 | $59,589 – $62,400 | 2026-07-01 → 2026-12-31 | Pending |
|
[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] Base case: Bitcoin bottoms sometime in Q4 2026
2026-10-01 to 2026-12-31
non-price or unparseable target
|
BTC | — | — | — | Narrative |
|
[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] Both bottom scenarios resolve in the H2 2026 window
2026-07-01 to 2026-12-31
non-price or unparseable target
|
BTC | — | — | — | Narrative |
|
[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] Stock market correction in H2 2026 drags BTC to its real low
2026-07-01 to 2026-12-31
non-price or unparseable target
|
SPX/NDX + BTC | — | — | — | Narrative |
|
[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] Bottom prints when Fed stops tightening and equities capitulate (c…
open-ended, expected H2 2026
non-price or unparseable target
|
BTC / macro | — | — | — | Narrative |
|
[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] Two-stage scenario: BTC forms a meaningful low in June 2026
2026-06-01 to 2026-06-30
non-price or unparseable target
|
BTC | — | — | — | Narrative |
|
[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] Two-stage scenario: convincing BTC rally through July 2026 that is…
2026-07-01 to 2026-07-31
non-price or unparseable target
|
BTC | — | — | — | Narrative |
|
[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] Two-stage scenario: final flush lands ~October 2026 as the real bo…
2026-10-01 to 2026-10-31
non-price or unparseable target
|
BTC | — | — | — | Narrative |
|
[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] Post-bottom: +310-420% over the 12 months following the cycle bott…
12 months post-bottom
non-price or unparseable target
|
BTC | — | — | — | Narrative |
|
[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] TradFi profits temporarily rotate out and BTC begins next 4-year c…
~2026-Q4
non-price or unparseable target
|
BTC / TradFi flows | — | — | — | Narrative |
|
[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] TradFi->BTC rotation thesis currently wrong-way; money flowing to …
current / ongoing
non-price or unparseable target
|
BTC vs AI/semis | — | — | — | Narrative |
|
[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] $30K = full deleveraging
conditional / deeper
unparseable horizon
|
BTC | $30,000 | — | — | Narrative |
|
[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] $10-20K = capitulation wick / systemic event
tail risk
unparseable horizon
|
BTC | $10,000 – $20,000 | — | — | Narrative |
|
[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] Market in late Phase 2 -> early Phase 3; a more complete flush sti…
H2 2026
non-price or unparseable target
|
BTC / global risk | — | — | — | Narrative |
|
[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] When global liquidity improves, Bitcoin responds first (before alt…
cycle turn
non-price or unparseable target
|
BTC vs alts | — | — | — | Narrative |
|
[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] Time to start DCAing BTC is after the June low - 'good enough' on …
from June 2026 low
non-price or unparseable target
|
BTC | — | — | — | Narrative |
|
[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] RETRO CLAIM: 'previous reports outlined a bearish scenario... play…
retrospective
unparseable horizon
|
BTC | $60,000 | — | — | Narrative |
|
[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] RETRO CLAIM: publicly turned bearish months ago, flagged ETH $4,50…
retrospective
unparseable horizon
|
ETH | $4 | — | — | Narrative |
|
[3rd Outlook ~Jun 2026] RETRO CLAIM: first chunk deployed at 'the predicted $60K level' ma…
executed at writing
unparseable horizon
|
BTC | $60,000 | — | — | Narrative |